That was the title of a popular movie among my generation that explored the experience of early adulthood. Unfortunately, it’s a good metaphor for what SpaceX investors are experiencing this week as the sparkling glitter of an IPO begins to dull and the party appears to be over. The rocket of a stock some investors were hoping for has failed to launch. I’m here to offer my insight on whether it might take off anytime soon.

Analysts can’t agree on whether the SpaceX price-to-sales ratio is 76x or 115x, so we’ll split the difference and say it’s around 95x, with a negative operating margin. To put that into perspective, Tesla stock is significantly overpriced with a price-to-sales ratio of 13x and a positive operating margin of 3.9. So, if the SpaceX share price comes down to $22.00, it will still be as overpriced as Tesla. That seems to be as far as Elon fans and hype can push the Tesla share price above its value, so that’s the benchmark I use to estimate how high Elon fans and hype can hold SpaceX above its value. $22.00 is our one-year price target for SpaceX. Bears will say this will drag the broader market down with it. Bulls will say investors dumped their blue-chips in order to buy SpaceX, which drove blue-chips down to attractive values. They will rotate back into those blue-chips as they flee SpaceX.

I’ve never said you should buy or sell $SPCX; I’ve just tried to explain that it’s overpriced. Now I’m saying if it falls by another 83%, it will still be overpriced. That didn’t stop millions of investors from buying it, and unfortunately, today that hasn’t stopped millions of investors from losing a lot of money on it.

Because none of that stopped investors from buying and driving up the share price before, the data suggests nothing will stop investors from doing that again. I can analyze numbers, but human behavior is beyond my expertise, and robot behavior is an even further reach. The number of times I’ve mentioned SpaceX in this article will count toward the total number of times the company was mentioned on the internet today, and if the number is high enough, some AI bot somewhere will register that as a buy signal. And some hedge fund somewhere will act on it. I wish I were making that up.

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