‘Tis the season for a V-shaped pattern on the charts and in the skies. It’s amusing to consider how predictable things can be and the comparisons we can draw from patterns in the most unexpected places. Many market corrections have historically occurred in March. In many cases, the market recovered as quickly as it fell, resulting in a V-shaped formation on the chart becoming visible by April. This coincides with the seasonality of the V-shaped formation visible in the skies as migratory Canadian geese fly north when winter comes to an end. These foreseen turn of events unfolding have no connection to each other; I simply enjoy patterns that mirror each other in multiple ways.

While one rule of my field states that historical market returns cannot be used to predict future market returns, a law of statistics suggests that if a pattern repeats itself sufficiently, it becomes safe to rely upon it. We’ve seen the Canadian geese’s V-formation enough times to know exactly what it is and when to expect it. I would argue that while some of our current economic conditions are unprecedented, we’ve weathered plenty of unprecedented economic conditions before. We’ve seen how the market reacts to change and uncertainty, and we should now recognize these reliable patterns as they repeat themselves.

Based on historical and seasonal data, the first half of April predictably brings positive market growth. So, I’m expecting a V formation on the S&P 500 performance chart, just as I’m predicting V formations in the skies over the Northern Hemisphere in April.

Let us also consider the predictable seasonal pattern of spring flowers. You don’t think about V-shaped patterns in flowers until you’re taking an art class and learning from biology that every flower petal you draw or paint ultimately begins or ends with a V. Now I look at flowers from the perspective of how I could replicate their beauty in art, and all I see are V-shaped patterns.

I believe people should become informed enough to form their own theories or reach their own consensus rather than relying on someone else’s. However, I make a living by sharing what I know and what I see, so here’s my take: I see V-shaped patterns emerging all around us.

Why is this relevant? In my experience, I’ve witnessed an unfortunate pattern of some investors reaching a breaking point right around the bottom of a V in the market. They reach maximum anxiety levels and pull out of the market until things “stabilize.” In their eyes, “stabilization” refers to the market returning to its previous high point, and that’s when they get back in. This is essentially buying high and selling low, the opposite of the goal anyone sets out to achieve in the stock market. If the primary reason to invest in the stock market is to grow your money, then a low point is the greatest point from which to grow. This means a downturn is not something to run from but an opportunity we should run towards. It’s a narrow window in which we’re given a chance to buy low. Don’t fear a downturn; embrace it for what it is: a great opportunity.